Projecting the NCHSAA baseball playoffs
Conference finish and MaxPreps.com ranking will factor into this year’s baseball playoffs. Here’s how.
To round out the 48- or 64-team field, teams will get in by their conference finish: first the 1s all get in (sorted by adjusted MaxPreps rank, hereafter referred to as the AMPR), then the 2s (also sorted by their AMPR), then conference tournament champions, then the 3s (also sorted by AMPR), 4s (also sorted by AMPR) and 5s (also sorted by AMPR) until you hit either 48 or 64.
So that decides who gets in.
But it does not decide where everyone gets seeded.
The 1s are seeded first, then the 2s. Then 3s that come from 9- or 10-team conferences (note: this only happens in 2A and 1A).
But the remaining 3s, 4s, 5s and conference tournament champs (those that are not already seeded as a 1 or 2) are scrambled together and sorted by AMPR to fill out the rest of the bracket.
There are 48 playoff teams in 1A and 4A and 64 in 2A and 3A. Half go in the west and half go in the east, based on the location of each individual school.
Adjusted MaxPreps rankings are on the NCHSAA website each Monday morning. AMPR takes out margin of victory from its computer formula. We will update the projections each week around that same time.
How we do projections
We’re checking conference standings this week and doing projections as if the season were to end today.
In the case of ties, we are looking at either head-to-head or AMPR to guess which team will finish with a better record after this last week.
The AMPR will be submitted to the NCHSAA on Sunday and will likely be posted on Monday along with the brackets themselves.
Notes
Teams in the left column are automatic berths. The right column are at-large teams with their projected conference finish.
Teams that are underlined represent either the last 1-seed or 2-seed in that respective bracket.
“/” divides each bracket in half.
*-These two teams are tied for a seed. In some cases, the conference tournament will help break the tie, or there might be a tiebreaker game that needs to be scheduled. Some ties may not need a tiebreaker.
**-This split-conference team will receive an automatic bid for finishing first in its split, but will not be seeded with the 1s because it did not finish with a winning record or in the top-3 of the overall conference standings.
Last projection update: Sunday, May 6
Last AMPR release: Monday, April 30
Automatic bids - 4A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Northwestern | 1. South Caldwell | |
South Meck | 1. Providence 2. Ardrey Kell | 3. South Mecklenburg 4. Olympic |
I-Meck | 1. Hough 2. Lake Norman | 3. Mooresville 4. Hopewell |
Southwestern | 1. Myers Park 2. Hickory Ridge | 3. Independence 4. East Mecklenburg |
Central Piedmont | 1. East Forsyth 2. Reagan | 3. West Forsyth 4. Davie County |
Metro | 1. Northwest Guilford 2. Grimsley | 3. Ragsdale 4. Page |
Sandhills Athletic | 1. Pinecrest 2. Jack Britt | 3. Richmond 4. Scotland |
Triangle 6 | 1. Jordan 2. Green Hope | 3. Panther Creek 4. Riverside |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Pine Forest | 4. South View |
South Wake | 1. Holly Springs 2. Fuquay-Varina | 3. Garner 4. Middle Creek 5. Apex |
Cap-7 | 1. Cardinal Gibbons 2. Sanderson | 3. Leesville Road 4. Millbrook |
Northern Athletic | 1. Wake Forest 2. Heritage | 3. Wakefield 4. Corinth Holders |
Mideastern | 1. Ashley | 4. Hoggard |
Eastern Carolina | 1. New Bern | 5. South Central |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-South Central 14 / 5-Apex 19 / cutoff line / 5-Broughton 44 / 5-Butler 46 / 5-Athens Drive 47 / 5-Laney 48 / 5-Glenn 50 / 5-Hoke County 52 /
East/West dividing line:
Richmond / Scotland / Pinecrest / dividing line / Jack Britt
Conferences playing a conference tournament: I-Meck, Metro, Northern Athletic, Northwestern, Patriot Athletic, Sandhills, South Meck 7, Southwestern.
4A East
1-Holly Springs vs BYE; 16-Hoggard vs 17-Leesville Road
8-Green Hope vs BYE; 9-Fuquay-Varina vs 24-South View
4-Jordan vs BYE; 13-Garner vs 20-Millbrook
5-Wake Forest vs BYE; 12-Sanderson vs 21-Panther Creek
/
3-Cardinal Gibbons vs BYE; 14-South Central vs 19-Corinth Holders
6-New Bern vs BYE; 11-Jack Britt vs 22-Wakefield
2-Ashley vs BYE; 15-Apex vs 18-Middle Creek
7-Pine Forest vs BYE; 10-Heritage vs 23-Riverside
4A West
1-Providence vs BYE; 16-East Mecklenburg vs 17-Independence
8-Ardrey Kell vs BYE; 9-Hickory Ridge vs 24-Hopewell
4-South Caldwell vs BYE; 13-West Forsyth vs 20-Olympic
5-Pinecrest vs BYE; 12-Grimsley vs 21-Page
/
3-Myers Park vs BYE; 14-Richmond vs 19-Scotland
6-Northest Guilford vs BYE; 11-Reagan vs 22-Mooresville
2-East Forsyth vs BYE; 15-South Mecklenburg vs 18-Davie County
7-Hough vs BYE; 10-Lake Norman vs 23-Ragsdale
Automatic bids - 3A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Western Mountain | 1. AC Reynolds 2. TC Roberson 3. Asheville | 4. Tuscola |
Northwestern | 1. Alexander Central 3. St. Stephens | 4. Hickory |
Big South | 1. Crest 2. North Gaston | 3. Burns 4. Cramer 5. Forestview |
North Piedmont | 1. Carson 2. East Rowan | 3. West Rowan 4. North Iredell |
Southern Carolina | 1. Marvin Ridge 2. Weddington | 3. Cuthbertson 4. Sun Valley |
South Piedmont | 1. Jay M Robinson 2. Northwest Cabarrus | 3. Cox Mill 4. Central Cabarrus |
Piedmont Triad | 1. Southwest Guilford 2. Mount Tabor | 3. Western Guilford 4. Dudley |
Mid-Piedmont | 1. Southeast Guilford 2. Southwestern Randolph | 3. Southern Alamance 4. Eastern Guilford |
Mid-State | 1. Western Alamance 2. Morehead | 3. Eastern Alamance 4. Rockingham County |
Big Eight | 1. Chapel Hill 2. Cedar Ridge | 3. Orange 4. Northwood |
Tri-County 6 | 1. Southern Lee 2. Western Harnett | 3. Union Pines 4. Harnett Central |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Terry Sanford 3. Gray’s Creek | |
Greater Neuse River | 1. Clayton 2. East Wake | 3. South Johnston 4. Cleveland |
Big East | 1. Fike 2. Hunt | 3. Southern Nash 4. Rocky Mount |
Mideastern | 1. New Hanover 3. South Brunswick | |
Eastern Carolina | 1. DH Conley 2. JH Rose | 3. CB Aycock |
Coastal | 1. West Carteret 2. Jacksonville | 3. Swansboro 4. Havelock |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-Dudley 98 / 5-Forestview 20 / 5-East Chapel Hill 33 / cutoff line / 5-Northern Guilford 35 / 5-West Johnston 61
East/West dividing line:
Dudley / Rockingham County / Morehead / Southeast Guilford / dividing line / Eastern Guilford / Western Alamance / Southern Alamance / Union Pines / Eastern Alamance
Conferences playing a conference tournament: Big East, Big South, Mid-Piedmont, Mid-State, North Piedmont, Northwestern, Patriot Athletic, Piedmont Triad, South Piedmont, Southern Carolina, Tri-County 6
3A East
1-New Hanover vs 32-Harnett Central; 16-South Brunswick vs 17-Gray’s Creek
8-West Carteret vs 25-Southern Nash; 9-Clayton vs 24-Union Pines
4-Fike vs 29-Rocky Mount; 13-Jacksonville vs 20-East Chapel Hill
5-Chapel Hill vs 28-Swansboro; 12-Hunt vs 21-Orange
/
3-Western Alamance vs 30-Cleveland; 14-East Wake vs 19-Northwood
6-Terry Sanford vs 27-Havelock; 11-Cedar Ridge vs 22-Southern Alamance
2-DH Conley vs 31-Eastern Guilford; 15-Western Harnett vs 18-CB Aycock
7-Southern Lee vs 26-South Johnston; 10-JH Rose vs 23-Eastern Alamance
3A West
1-Crest vs 32-Dudley; 16-Northwest Cabarrus vs 17-Asheville
8-Alexander Central vs 25-Sun Valley; 9-North Gaston vs 24-Cuthbertson
4-Marvin Ridge vs 29-Central Cabarrus; 13-Weddington vs 20-Forestview
5-Carson vs 28-Hickory; 12-Morehead vs 21-Cramer
/
3-AC Reynolds vs 30-North Iredell; 14-Southwestern Randolph vs 19-Burns
6-Southwest Guilford vs 27-West Rowan; 11-TC Roberson vs 22-Tuscola
2-Southeast Guilford vs 31-Western Guilford; 15-Mount Tabor vs 18-St. Stephens
7-Jay M Robinson vs 26-Cox Mill; 10-East Rowan vs 23-Rockingham County
Automatic bids - 2A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Mountain Six | 1. Smoky Mountain 2. Franklin | 3. Pisgah 4. Brevard |
Western Highlands | 1. Mountain Heritage | 4. Madison County |
Southwestern | 1. R-S Central 2. South Point | 3. East Rutherford 4. East Gaston |
Northwestern Foothills | 1. Bunker Hill 2. Foard | 3. Hibriten 4. West Iredell |
South Fork | 1. North Lincoln 2. Bandys | 3. Lincolnton 4. West Lincoln |
Mountain Valley | 1. West Wilkes 2. Wilkes Central | 4. North Wilkes |
Western Piedmont | 1. Forbush 2. North Surry | 3. Walkertown 4. West Stokes |
Central Carolina | 1. North Davidson 2. Ledford 3. West Davidson | 4. Salisbury |
Rocky River | 1. West Stanly 2. Anson County | 3. Mount Pleasant 4. East Montgomery |
PAC-7 | 1. Randleman 2. Providence Grove | 3. Wheatmore 4. Eastern Randolph |
Mid-State/CTHC | 1. NCSSM 3. Reidsville | |
Three Rivers | 1. Whiteville 3. Fairmont | 4. Red Springs |
Northern Carolina | 1. South Granville 2. Bunn | 3. Roanoke Rapids 4. Northern Vance |
East Central | 1. Midway 2. Spring Creek | 3. East Duplin 4. Clinton |
Eastern Plains | 1. Nash Central 2. North Johnston | 3. SouthWest Edgecombe 4. North Pitt |
Eastern Carolina | 1. North Lenoir 2. West Craven | 3. Greene Central 4. South Lenoir |
Coastal 8 | 1. Croatan 2. Dixon | 3. Richlands |
Northeastern Coastal | 1. First Flight 2. Currituck County | 3. Bertie 4. Hertford County |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-East Montgomery 81 / 4-Hertford County 86 / cutoff line / 4-North Wilkes 90 / 4-Madison County 105 / 5-Washington 11 / 5-East Lincoln 42 /
East/West dividing line:
Walkertown / Ledford / Anson County / Wheatmore / dividing line / East Montgomery / Providence Grove / Reidsville /
Conferences playing a conference tournament: Mid-State/Central Tar Heel, Mountain Valley, Northwestern Foothills, PAC-7, Rocky River, South Fork, Southwestern, Western Piedmont
2A East
1-Whiteville vs 32-Richlands; 16-Dixon vs 17-Fairmont
8-First Flight vs 25-Northern Vance; 9-NCSSM vs 24-SouthWest Edgecombe
4-South Granville vs 29-Bertie; 13-Providence Grove vs 20-South Lenoir
5-Nash Central vs 28-Clinton; 12-Currituck County vs 21-East Duplin
/
3-Randleman vs 30-East Mongtomery; 14-North Johnston vs 19-Greene Central
6-Midway vs 27-North Pitt; 11-Bunn vs 22-Roanoke Rapids
2-North Lenoir vs 31-Hertford County; 15-Spring Creek vs 18-Reidsville
7-Croatan vs 26-Eastern Randolph; 10-West Craven vs 23-Red Springs
2A West
1-R-S Central vs 32-Owen; 16-Hibriten vs 17-West Davidson
8-West Wilkes vs 25-East Gaston; 9-Mountain Heritage vs 24-Brevard
4-Smoky Mountain vs 29-West Lincoln; 13-North Surry vs 20-Salisbury
5-Forbush vs 28-Wheatmore; 12-South Point vs 21-Walkertown
/
3-North Davidson vs 30-Wilkes Central; 14-Franklin vs 19-Lincolnton
6-Bunker Hill vs 27-West Stokes; 11-Bandys vs 22-Pisgah
2-North Lincoln vs 31-West Iredell; 15-Anson County vs 18-East Rutherford
7-West Stanly vs 26-Foard; 10-Ledford vs 23-Mount Pleasant
Automatic bids - 1A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Smoky Mountain | 1. Murphy 2. Rosman 3. Swain County | 4. Andrews |
Western Highlands | 1. Polk County 2. Mitchell County | |
Southern Piedmont | 1. Lincoln Charter 2. Cherryville | 3. Highland Tech 4. Bessemer City |
Mountain Valley | 1. East Wilkes | |
PAC-7 | 1. Pine Lake Prep 2. Queen’s Grant | 3. Mountain Island Charter |
Northwest | 1. East Surry 2. North Stokes | 3. Mount Airy 4. South Stokes |
Yadkin Valley | 1. Uwharrie Charter 2. North Stanly 3. South Stanly | 4. North Moore |
Mid-State / Central Tar Heel | 1. Chatham Central | 4. Chatham Charter |
Three Rivers | 1. West Columbus | |
North Central | 1. Voyager Academy 2. Falls Lake Academy | 3. Oxford Prep 4. Roxboro Community |
Northern Carolina | 1. Louisburg | |
Carolina 1A | 1. Rosewood 2. North Duplin | 3. Lakewood |
Tar-Roanoke | 1. Rocky Mount Prep 2. KIPP Pride | 3. North Edgecombe |
Coastal 8 | 1. Pender** | |
Coastal Plains | 1. Riverside (W) 2. Northside (P) | 3. Tarboro |
Albemarle | 1. Perquimans 2. Edenton Holmes | 3. Gates County 4. Manteo |
Atlantic 6 | 1. Bear Grass Charter 2. Mattamuskeet | 3. Columbia |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-Manteo 16 / 4-Chatham Charter 20 / 4-Roxboro Community 26 / 4-Andrews 31 / 4-South Stokes 33 / 4-North Moore 35 / 4-Bessemer City 50 / 4-Pamlico County 55 / cutoff line / 4-Union Academy 57 / 4-Union 64
East/West dividing line:
North Moore / Chatham Charter / Chatham Central / dividing line / West Columbus / Voyager Academy /
Conferences playing a conference tournament: Mid-State/Central Tar Heel, Mountain Valley, Northwest, PAC-7, Yadkin Valley
1A East
1-Voyager Academy vs BYE; 16-Manteo vs 17-Oxford Prep
8-Rocky Mount Prep vs BYE; 9-Falls Lake Academy vs 24-North Edgecombe
4-Riverside (Williamston) vs BYE; 13-Mattamuskeet vs 20-Tarboro
5-Rosewood vs BYE; 12-North Duplin vs 21-Pamlico County
/
3-Perquimans vs BYE; 14-KIPP Pride vs 19-Columbia
6-West Columbus vs BYE; 11-Edenton Holmes vs 22-Pender
2-Bear Grass Charter vs BYE; 15-Gates County vs 18-Roxboro Community
7-Louisburg vs BYE; 10-Northside (Pinetown) vs 23-Lakewood
1A West
1-Murphy vs BYE; 16-Swain County vs 17-Chatham Charter
8-East Wilkes vs BYE; 9-North Stanly vs 24-Bessemer City
4-Lincoln Charter vs BYE; 13-Queen’s Grant vs 20-South Stokes
5-Polk County vs BYE; 12-North Stokes vs 21-Highland Tech
/
3-Uwharrie Charter vs BYE; 14-Mitchell County vs 19-Andrews
6-Chatham Central vs BYE; 11-Cherryville vs 22-North Moore
2-East Surry vs BYE; 15-South Stanly vs 18-Mount Airy
7-Pine Lake Prep vs BYE; 10-Rosman vs 23-MountainIsland Charter
This story was originally published May 6, 2018 at 9:47 PM with the headline "Projecting the NCHSAA baseball playoffs."