ACC at the midpoint: At least it’s halfway over
The first Duke-North Carolina game has always served as a sort of unofficial halfway point to the ACC season, typically a time to reflect and reassess. There are a couple big diversions from typical this year.
For one, that first meeting usually carries the heavy portent of title implications, even with so much of the season yet to play. That clearly isn’t the case Saturday with North Carolina looking up at .500. The ACC’s switch to a 20-game schedule dilutes the meaning ever so slightly anyway, while pushing it 12 games beyond the actual midway point.
Nevertheless, it’s as good a time as any to look back on the first three months of the basketball season and the first half of the ACC season, where Duke and Louisville lead the way but other than that, things haven’t exactly gone as planned, starting with that expanded conference schedule.
TWO GAMES TOO MANY?
When the ACC went to a 20-game schedule, one of the goals was to create more high-quality games to impress the NCAA tournament selection committee, not finish with eight teams at 10-10. Due to circumstances no one could have foreseen even as late as this fall, the precipitous drop in quality among ACC teams has left most of the schools in a situation where they might have been better off playing two more decent nonconference games.
At the moment, the ACC only has three locks for the NCAA tournament, and if anything, would-be bubble teams are weakening their cases instead of strengthening them as they’re sucked into the maw at the mediocre middle of the ACC. The ACC has two teams in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings (Duke and Louisville), one more in the top 20 (Florida State) and a whopping 10 in the netherland between 50 and 100. That group isn’t doing much to polish anyone’s resume.
The reasons for the ACC’s struggles are well documented, and that Virginia and Syracuse are in contention for a double-bye in Greensboro despite having their worst teams since 2011 and 2017 respectively doesn’t exactly speak well of the league. Still, three is the worst-case scenario for tournament bids, and Virginia’s probably a coin flip to be a fourth while Syracuse has an outside shot at best. The best-case scenario for the ACC is a strong Virginia finish combined with an upset tournament winner that gets the league to five. And everyone exhales.
MOONEY, CAREY LEAD AWARD PICKS
There’s one individual award that’s a virtual lock at this point, and it’s not what anyone would have expected in November. Duke’s Vernon Carey is far and away the ACC’s freshman of the year at this point, a turn of events no one who watched Anthony against Notre Dame would believe. But Anthony’s injury and subsequent struggles — he never has reached the same heights, even when healthy, that he did against the Irish — opened the door for Carey, who might have won it by his own right anyway with his aggressive post play. Virginia Tech redshirt freshman Landers Nolley remains a contender, but it’s Carey’s to lose.
The player-of-the-year favorite remains Louisville’s versatile Jordan Nwora, but that race is anything but settled. Carey will have a say, as will Duke teammate Tre Jones and Syracuse forward Elijah Hughes, but the pick here would be someone else entirely: Notre Dame forward John Mooney, who’s not only averaging a double-double (16.5 points, 13.0 rebounds) but is a 3-point threat as well, even if his accuracy is down slightly from the past two seasons.
That’s pretty much the way the all-ACC first team shapes up, with other contenders like Anthony, Miami’s Chris Lykes and Georgia Tech’s Jose Alvarado all battling injuries and popular preseason picks like N.C. State’s Markell Johnson failing to measure up to expectations. (Typically, there isn’t a Florida State player who stands out individually, but as always, Leonard Hamilton has the Seminoles contending.)
FRUSTRATION BOILS OVER
If there has been an overall theme to this season, it has been frustration. From Roy Williams calling his team the “least gifted” he’s coached to Mike Krzyzewski screaming at his own fans to Mike Brey getting fined for questioning the officiating to what feels like a rash of technical fouls and ejections, there’s anger and frustration seeping from every seam. No one is used to this.
A rash of injuries to key players hasn’t helped in a year when talent is thin already. Even a partial list of players who have missed at least three games is a long one: Alvarado, Anthony, Chaundee Brown, C.J. Bryce, David Johnson, Braxton Key, Lykes, Kameron McGusty, Wendell Moore, Nik Popovic, Brandon Robinson, Wynston Tabbs, Clyde Trapp, M.J. Walker and Malik Williams.
That’s at least one key player from every team but Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.
The good news: We’re halfway to Greensboro. The bad news: We’re only halfway to Greensboro.
