NC Senate could be Republicans’ insurance policy

Privately, many Republicans worry about a bad year in North Carolina. And Andy Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University, believes “Trump drag” down the ballot could be devastating. Besides Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, fallout from the controversial House Bill 2 is expected, he said.

One who likely does not share the worry: Senate leader Phil Berger. He is unopposed on Nov. 8. In January he is expected to start a seventh year as Senate leader. Within the General Assembly the Eden Republican and his troops have a reputation for being consistently calm and prepared.

His party holds 34 of the chamber’s 50 seats, a veto-proof supermajority that few experts predict Democrats to smash this cycle. They need to net five seats for that.

“When Republicans redistricted in 2011,” said Michael Bitzer, Catawba College political science professor, “they bought themselves a pretty good insurance policy.”

More than just favorable district lines, Berger’s Senate has other safeguards, including a formidable campaign war chest. Berger and his allies’ journey to the majority in 2010 was so difficult, Taylor said, along the way they learned to stockpile resources for scarce times.

“We expect an avalanche of money from Berger in the next two to three weeks,” said Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, a Raleigh Democrat. “But we also expect to make some dents in their armor.”

Democrats see seven compelling races to watch — in Wake County, Wilmington, Fayetteville, Greensboro and the Outer Banks.

They say their voters now view HB2, the law limiting protections for LGBT people, as an economic issue starving the state of new jobs. They also hear concerns about traditional issues: the environment, alternative energy and education.

“We’re competitive in enough races that we should eliminate the supermajority this year,” Blue said. “And after redistricting next year, we will take back the majority in 2018.”

Republicans say voters care more about dinner table issues. In that sense, they believe North Carolina’s recovering economy is their ticket to ride. They also say holding 34 seats is a high-water mark.

“Literally, mathematically, you can almost go no higher,” said Dallas Woodhouse, state Republican Party executive director.

Races to watch

Recent years have seen District 1 in eastern North Carolina host a routinely competitive race. This year is no different.

Democrat Brownie Futrell, a retired Pulitzer Prize-winning newspaper publisher, is challenging two-term Republican incumbent Bill Cook. As of June 30, Cook had raised $73,000 with $62,000 on hand, while Futrell had raised $103,000 with $76,000 on hand. State Republicans helped Cook in 2014 when he defeated former Sen. Stan White with 53.5 percent of the vote. They gave him $387,000. The district includes all or parts of Beaufort, Camden, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hyde, Pasquotank and Perquimans counties.

Down the coast, Wilmington’s District 9 “leans Republican,” according to the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation, but routinely hosts intriguing battles. This election cycle it features one of the youngest candidates, 28-year-old Democrat Andrew Barnhill. He is wrestling with Republican incumbent Michael Lee, a Wilmington attorney. Barnhill is an attorney and minister and has been actively campaigning since the last election.

The race began fast and by June 30 both candidates had raised more than $200,000 combined. Barnhill has opposed offshore natural gas drilling, vowed to expand Medicaid and tied Lee to controversial GOP decisions in Raleigh, including his vote for HB2, which recently led the NCAA and ACC to move college sports events out of North Carolina.

Republicans counterpunched by attacking Barnhill for a trip he allegedly took to an African casino resort while supposedly on a mission trip helping the poor. An N.C. GOP-created website, partyboybarnhill.com, was amplified with $120,000 worth of TV ads.

Money is also flowing to the Piedmont. In Greensboro, Guilford County and High Point’s District 27, Republicans have spent $330,000 on ads supporting two-term incumbent Sen. Trudy Wade in her battle against Democrat Michael Garrett. The owner of a marketing firm, Garrett has blasted Wade’s HB2 support, environmental record and efforts to restructure the Greensboro City Council, where she once served.

Suburban voters

In swing districts around the expanding suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte, seats are also in play. Pollsters say out-of-state newcomers with no local political allegiances could tip the scales in several races where HB2 has stifled positive sentiments about North Carolina’s improved economy.

Bitzer said HB2 has exposed how much Berger, who represents rural Rockingham County, has moved the Republican Party toward its more conservative rural constituents, who view HB2 as a public-safety issue.

“When you have one policy issue seen so differently depending on the social lens, it is amazing that we are the same state,” said Bitzer.

Tight Raleigh-area races include District 18, where two-term Republican Sen. Chad Barefoot is in a dogfight against Democrat Gil Johnson. Barefoot first won the 18th, which covers eastern Wake and Franklin counties, in 2012 by ousting incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Berger. In 2014 he received about 53 percent of the vote against Sarah Crawford. The son-in-law of the N.C. Values Coalition leader Tami Fitzgerald, Barefoot is known around the General Assembly as an HB2 defender and champion of conservative legislation, particularly education policy.

Johnson, a former Franklin County Board of Education chairman and a retired air traffic controller, has hammered Barefoot’s HB2 support. In the last reporting period, Johnson had about $40,000 on hand. Barefoot had $91,000 and could get help from Republicans if he needs it.

Maps could change

In the shadow of the Great Smoky Mountains, Democrat Jane Hipps of Waynesville is challenging Republican two-term incumbent Sen. Jim Davis for the District 50 seat. In 2014, Davis defeated Hipps with 54 percent of the vote. This time around Hipps’ fundraising total is running about three times what it was in 2014 while Davis is on about the same pace.

Hipps is a pediatric nurse and educator who was married to the late former district attorney and state Sen. Charlie Hipps. Davis is an orthodontist.

Fracking has been a major issue in their races. This year Hipps and Davis are sparring over sales taxes the legislature added to car repairs and other services as well as the flow of resources to the mountain district.

Nearly 30 House and Senate districts were declared illegal in August by federal judges because of racial gerrymandering. The three-judge panel ordered North Carolina to draw new state legislative district maps in 2017.

Democrats feel confident new maps will help them flip the chamber in 2018, which requires gains this year.

When talk of possible Senate Democratic gains arises, Republicans turn their thoughts to Berger’s team. “You know,” Woodhouse said between meetings at state GOP headquarters, “we have some seriously competitive races that are really very close. But the Senate caucus political people show an amazing ability to win races, especially the close ones.”

This story was originally published October 15, 2016 at 12:54 PM with the headline "NC Senate could be Republicans’ insurance policy."