Projecting the NCHSAA softball playoffs
Conference finish and MaxPreps.com ranking will factor into this year’s softball playoffs. Here’s how.
To round out the 48- or 64-team field, teams will get in by their conference finish: first the 1s all get in (sorted by adjusted MaxPreps rank, hereafter referred to as the AMPR), then the 2s (also sorted by their AMPR), then conference tournament champions, then the 3s (also sorted by AMPR), 4s (also sorted by AMPR) and 5s (also sorted by AMPR) until you hit either 48 or 64.
So that decides who gets in.
But it does not decide where everyone gets seeded.
The 1s are seeded first, then the 2s. Then 3s that come from 9- or 10-team conferences (note: this only happens in 2A and 1A).
But the remaining 3s, 4s, 5s and conference tournament champs (those that are not already seeded as a 1 or 2) are scrambled together and sorted by AMPR to fill out the rest of the bracket.
There are 48 playoff teams in 1A and 4A and 64 in 2A and 3A. Half go in the west and half go in the east, based on the location of each individual school.
Adjusted MaxPreps rankings are on the NCHSAA website each Monday morning. AMPR takes out margin of victory from its computer formula. We will update the projections each week around that same time.
How we do projections
We’re checking conference standings this week and doing projections as if the season were to end today.
In the case of ties, we are looking at either head-to-head or AMPR to guess which team will finish with a better record after this last week.
Notes
Teams in the left column are automatic berths. The right column are at-large teams with their projected conference finish.
Teams that are underlined represent either the last 1-seed or 2-seed in that respective bracket.
“/” divides each bracket in half.
*-These two teams are tied for a seed that needs the conference tournament to help break the tie, or schedule a tiebreaker game.
Last projection update: Sunday, May 6
Last AMPR release: Monday, April 30
Automatic bids - 4A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Northwestern | 1. South Caldwell | 3. McDowell County |
South Meck | 1. Providence 2. Olympic | 3. Ardrey Kell 4. South Mecklenburg |
I-Meck | 1. Mooresville 2. Lake Norman | 3. Hough 4. North Mecklenburg |
Southwestern | 1. Porter Ridge 2. Butler | 3. Hickory Ridge 4. Independence |
Central Piedmont | 1. Davie County 2. West Forsyth | 3. East Forsyth 4. Glenn |
Metro | 1. Northwest Guilford 2. High Point Central | 3. Page 4. Ragsdale |
Sandhills Athletic | 1. Richmond 2. Jack Britt | 3. Purnell Swett 4. Lumberton 5. Hoke County |
Triangle 6 | 1. Cary 2. Panther Creek | 3. Green Hope 4. Athens Drive |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Overhills | 4. Pine Forest |
South Wake | 1. Fuquay-Varina 2. Middle Creek | 3. Garner 4. Holly Springs |
Cap-7 | 1/2. Leesville Road* 1/2. Enloe* | 3. Millbrook 4. Cardinal Gibbons |
Northern Athletic | 1. Heritage 2. Wake Forest | 3. Corinth Holders 4. Rolesville |
Mideastern | 1. Hoggard | 4. Laney |
Eastern Carolina | 1. South Central |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-Hoke County 24 / cutoff line / 5-Ashley 28 / 5-Myers Park 36 / 5-Apex Friendship 43 /
East/West dividing line:
Richmond / Purnell Swett / dividing line / Hoke County / Jack Britt / Lumberton
Conferences playing a conference tournament: I-Meck, Metro, Northern Athletic, Northwestern, Patriot Athletic, Sandhills, South Meck 7, Southwestern.
4A East
NOTE: we still need a tiebreaker from the Cap-7 Conference.
1-Fuquay-Varina vs BYE; 16-Hoke County vs 17-Holly Springs
8-Jack Britt vs BYE; 9-Middle Creek vs 24-Athens Drive
4-Hoggard vs BYE; 13-Laney vs 20-Green Hope
5-Overhills vs BYE; 12-Panther Creek vs 21-Pine Forest
/
3-Heritage vs BYE; 14-Garner vs 19-Corinth Holders
6-Leesville Road vs BYE; 11-Enloe vs 22-Cardinal Gibbons
2-South Central vs BYE; 15-Lumberton vs 18-Rolesville
7-Cary vs BYE; 10-Wake Forest vs 23-Millbrook
4A West
1-Richmond vs BYE; 16-Hough vs 17-East Forysth
8-Lake Norman vs BYE; 9-Butler vs 24-Page
4-Mooresville vs BYE; 13-Purnell Swett vs 20-Glenn
5-Providence vs BYE; 12-High Point Cenral vs 21-North Mecklenburg
/
3-Porter Ridge vs BYE; 14-Hickory Ridge vs 19-Ardrey Kell
6-Northwest Guilford vs BYE; 11-Olympic vs 22-South Mecklenburg
2-South Caldwell vs BYE; 15-McDowell County vs 18-Independence
7-Davie County vs BYE; 10-West Forsyth vs 23-Ragsdale
Automatic bids - 3A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Western Mountain | 1. North Buncombe 2. Tuscola 3. TC Roberson | 4. AC Reynolds 5. Enka |
Northwestern | 1. Alexander Central | 4. West Caldwell |
Big South | 1. Crest 2. Kings Mountain | 3. Cramer 4. North Gaston |
North Piedmont | 1. Carson 2. West Rowan | 3. South Iredell 4. East Rowan |
Southern Carolina | 1. Parkwood 2. Marvin Ridge | 3. Piedmont 4. Charlotte Catholic 5. Sun Valley |
South Piedmont | 1. Central Cabarrus 2. Cox Mill | 3. AL Brown 4. Jay M Robinson |
Piedmont Triad | 1. Southwest Guilford 2. Parkland | 3. Mount Tabor 4. Western Guilford |
Mid-Piedmont | 1. Southern Alamance 2. Southwestern Randolph | 3. Asheboro 4. Southeast Guilford |
Mid-State | 1. Western Alamance 2. Eastern Alamance | 3. Rockingham County 4. Morehead 5. Northern Guilford |
Big Eight | 1. Cedar Ridge 2. East Chapel Hill | 3. Orange 4. Northern Durham |
Tri-County 6 | 1. Harnett Central 2. Triton | 3. Union Pines 4. Western Harnett |
Patriot Athletic | 1. Cape Fear 2. Gray’s Creek | |
Greater Neuse River | 1. Cleveland 2. West Johnston | 3. South Johnston 4. East Wake |
Big East | 1. Southern Nash 2. Fike | 3. Hunt 4. Northern Nash |
Mideastern | 1. West Brunswick 2. Topsail | |
Eastern Carolina | 1. CB Aycock 3. DH Conley | 4. Southern Wayne |
Coastal | 1. West Carteret 2. Jacksonville | 3. Havelock 4. Swansboro |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
5-Northern Guilford 30 / 5-Sun Valley 36 / 5-Enka 47 / cutoff line / 5-North Iredell 58 / 5-Freedom 62
East/West dividing line:
Southwestern Randolph / Asheboro / Northern Guilford / Rockingham County / dividing line / Morehead / Southeast Guilford
3A East
1-West Brunswick vs 32-Western Harnett; 16-Gray’s Creek vs 17-Jacksonville
8-Southern Nash vs 25-Southeast Guilford; 9-West Carteret vs 24-Orange
4-Cape Fear vs 29-Hunt; 13-Eastern Alamance vs 20-Morehead
5-Southern Alamance vs 28-Union Pines; 12-Triton vs 21-South Johnston
/
3-Western Alamance vs 30-Swansboro; 14-Fike vs 19-DH Conley
6-Cedar Ridge vs 27-Northern Durham; 11-Topsail vs 22-East Wake
2-Cleveland vs 31-Northern Nash; 15-West Johnston vs 18-East Chapel Hill
7-CB Aycock vs 26-Havelock; 10-Harnett Central vs 23-Southern Wayne
3A West
1-Parkwood vs 32-Mount Tabor; 16-Piedmont vs 17-Rockingham County
8-Marvin Ridge vs 25-AL Brown; 9-West Rowan vs 24-East Rowan
4-North Buncombe vs 29-Jay M Robinson; 13-Kings Mountain vs 20-West Caldwell
5-Carson vs 28-Cramer; 12-Tuscola vs 21-Northern Guilford
/
3-Alexander Central vs 30-North Gaston; 14-Parkland vs 19-South Iredell
6-Crest vs 27-Asheboro; 11-Southwestern Randolph vs 22-Sun Valley
2-Central Cabarrus vs 31-Western Guilford; 15-TC Roberson vs 18-Charlotte Catholic
7-Southwest Guilford vs 26-Enka; 10-Cox Mill vs 23-AC Reynolds
Automatic bids - 2A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Mountain Six | 1. Franklin 2. Brevard | 3/4. Pisgah* 3/4. Smoky Mountain* |
Western Highlands | 1. Madison County | 3. Owen 4. Mountain Heritage |
Southwestern | 1. R-S Central 2. East Rutherford | 3. Chase 4. East Gaston |
Northwestern Foothills | 1. Foard 2. Bunker Hill | 3. Draughn 4. Hibriten |
South Fork | 1. Maiden 2. North Lincoln | 3. East Lincoln 4. West Lincoln 5. Bandys |
Mountain Valley | 1. West Wilkes | |
Western Piedmont | 1. Forbush 2. West Stokes | 3. Surry Central 4. North Surry |
Central Carolina | 1. North Davidson 2. Ledford 3. South Rowan | 4. Central Davidson |
Rocky River | 1. West Stanly 2. Mount Pleasant | 3. Anson County 4. Forest Hills |
PAC-7 | 1. Providence Grove 2. Eastern Randolph | 3. Jordan-Matthews 4. Randleman |
Mid-State/CTHC | 1. Bartlett Yancey 3. Carrboro | 4. Reidsville |
Three Rivers | 1. Whiteville 2. South Columbus | 4. West Bladen |
Northern Carolina | 1. South Granville 3. JF Webb | 4. Bunn |
East Central | 1. Midway 2. East Duplin | 3. Wallace-Rose Hill 4. Goldsboro |
Eastern Plains | 1. North Johnston 2. Farmville Central | 3. Beddingfield 4. SouthWest Edgecombe |
Eastern Carolina | 1. Washington 2. South Lenoir | 3. Greene Central 4. Ayden-Grifton |
Coastal 8 | 1. Richlands | 3. Dixon |
Northeastern Coastal | 1. Currituck County 2. Bertie | 3. Hertford County 4. Northeastern |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-South Point 90 / 5-Bandys 51 / cutoff line / 5-West Iredell 55 /
East/West dividing line:
Ledford / dividing line / Anson County / Providence Grove / Reidsville / Eastern Randolph
2A East
1-North Johnston vs 32-Hertford County; 16-JF Webb vs 17-Dixon
8-Midway vs 25-Ayden-Grifton; 9-Richlands vs 24-Randleman
4-Washington vs 29-SouthWest Edgecombe; 13-South Columbus vs 20-Bunn
5-Whiteville vs 28-Northeastern; 12-Eastern Randolph vs 21-Greene Central
/
3-Providence Grove vs 30-Goldsboro; 14-Farmville Central vs 19-Beddingfield
6-Bartlett Yancey vs 27-Reidsville; 11-East Duplin vs 22-Jordan-Matthews
2-South Granville vs 31-West Bladen; 15-Bertie vs 18-Carrboro
7-Currituck County vs 26-Wallace-Rose Hill; 10-South Lenoir vs 23-Anson County
2A West
1-West Stanly vs 32-East Gaston; 16-East Rutherford vs 17-South Rowan
8-North Davidson vs 25-Chase; 9-R-S Central vs 24-North Surry
4-Maiden vs 29-Smoky Mountain; 13-North Lincoln vs 20-East Lincoln
5-West Wilkes vs 28-Pisgah; 12-West Stokes vs 21-Forest Hills
/
3-Foard vs 30-Central Davidson; 14-Bunker Hill vs 19-Hibriten
6-Madison County vs 27-Surry Central; 11-Brevard vs 22-West Lincoln
2-Franklin vs 31-Mountain Heritage; 15-Ledford vs 18-Draughn
7-Forbush vs 26-Bandys; 10-Mount Pleasant vs 23-Owen
Automatic bids - 1A
Conf. (listed W to E) | automatic bids | at-large 3/4/5 |
Smoky Mountain | 1. Robbinsville 2. Hiwassee Dam 3. Murphy | 4. Swain County |
Western Highlands | 1. Polk County | |
Southern Piedmont | 1. Lincoln Charter 2. Bessemer City | 3. Highland Tech |
Mountain Valley | 1. Alleghany County | 3. Starmount 4. East Wilkes |
PAC-7 | 1. Pine Lake Prep 2. Union Academy | 3. Mountain Island Charter |
Northwest | 1. North Stokes | 2. East Surry 3. South Stokes |
Yadkin Valley | 1. South Stanly 2. Uwharrie Charter 3. North Stanly | 4. West Montgomery |
Central Tar Heel | 1. Chatham Central | |
Three Rivers | 1. East Columbus | |
North Central | 1. Roxboro Community 2. Vance Charter | 3. Oxford Prep 4. Falls Lake Academy |
Northern Carolina | 1. Louisburg | |
Carolina 1A | 1. Rosewood 2. Princeton | 3. North Duplin 4. Hobbton |
Tar-Roanoke | 1. KIPP Pride 2. Rocky Mount Prep | 3. Weldon |
Coastal 8 | 1. East Carteret | 4. Pender |
Coastal Plains | 1. Riverside (W) 2. Northside (P) | 3/4/5. Southside* 3/4/5. Pamlico County* or 3/4/5. Tarboro* |
Albemarle | 1. Camden County 2. Perquimans | 3. Manteo 4. Edenton Holmes |
Atlantic 6 | 1. Bear Grass Charter 2. Mattamuskeet | 3. Cape Hatteras |
Final at-large spots w/adjusted MaxPreps rank:
4-West Montgomery 19 / 4-Starmount 20 / 4-Pender 29 / 4-Hobbton 40 / 4-Swain County 41 / 4-Pamlico County 43 / 4-Falls Lake Academy 45 / 4-Edenton Holmes 54 / cutoff line / 4-Cherryville 61 / 4-Carolina International 65 / 4-Southeast Halifax 64 / 4-Columbia 69
East/West dividing line:
/ Chatham Central / Roxboro Community / Oxford Prep / dividing line / East Columbus / Vance Charter
1A East
NOTE: we still need a tiebreaker from the Coastal Plains Conference.
1-East Carteret vs BYE; 16-Pender vs 17-Weldon
8-KIPP Pride vs BYE; 9-Princeton vs 24-Cape Hatteras
4-Camden County vs BYE; 13-Rocky Mount Prep vs 20-Pamlico County
5-Bear Grass Charter vs BYE; 12-Vance Charter vs 21-Manteo
/
3-Riverside (Williamston) vs BYE; 14-Mattamuskeet vs 19-Hobbton
6-Rosewood vs BYE; 11-Perquimans vs 22-Falls Lake Academy
2-Louisburg vs BYE; 15-North Duplin vs 18-Southside
7-East Columbus vs BYE; 10-Northside (Pinetown) vs 23-Edenton Holmes
1A West
1-North Stokes vs BYE; 16-East Surry vs 17-East Wilkes
8-Lincoln Charter vs BYE; 9-Pine Lake Prep vs 24-South Stokes
4-Robbinsville vs BYE; 13-Union Academy vs 20-Oxford Prep
5-Alleghany County vs BYE; 12-Bessemer City vs 21-Swain County
/
3-South Stanly vs BYE; 14-Murphy vs 19-Starmount
6-Roxboro Community vs BYE; 11-Hiwassee Dam vs 22-Mountain Island Charter
2-Chatham Central vs BYE; 15-North Stanly vs 18-West Montgomery
7-Polk County vs BYE; 10-Uwharrie Charter vs 23-Highland Tech
This story was originally published May 6, 2018 at 9:37 PM with the headline "Projecting the NCHSAA softball playoffs."