Has Trump immigration crackdown caused fewer students to attend Wake schools?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Slowed foreign-born migration and enforcement actions contributed to enrollment drop.
- Opportunity Scholarship expansion likely moved students into private schools.
- Reduced growth reshapes priorities, favoring renovations over many new schools.
The Trump administration’s federal immigration crackdown and the expansion of North Carolina’s private school voucher program are being blamed for the drop in the number of students in the Wake County school system.
Wake County is now projecting minimal student enrollment growth over the next decade after the school district saw a 702-student drop from the prior year. Planners repeatedly emphasized this week how the district’s enrollment is being impacted by changes in immigration patterns and the expansion of the Opportunity Scholarship program.
The slowdown in growth will have major implications in North Carolina’s largest school system. It will impact how much money the school district gets and could cause calendar conversions at several under-enrolled year-round schools.
“The changes in our foreign-born migration are going to continue to impact the district,” said Susan Pullium, senior director of student assignment. “We just need to continue to monitor those trends both nationally, at the state level, and of course here regionally.”
Wake has 2,000 students fewer than projected
Wake had its highest-ever enrollment in the 2019-20 school year with 161,907 students. But like school districts around the country, enrollment fell sharply in 2020 when COVID concerns led to students taking all or mostly online classes.
But Wake grew by 1,120 students last school year. Planners had projected that Wake would grow by 1,305 students this school year to exceed pre-pandemic levels and reach 162,420 students overall.
Instead, Wake is reporting it has 160,413 students — 2,007 fewer students than projected. There was also a statewide enrollment drop in traditional public schools this school year.
Planners are now projecting that Wake will only grow by 48 students next school year for a total of 160,461 overall. The district will use that number for the upcoming budget proposal.
Historic drop in foreign-born migration
Demographers tried to explain the enrollment drop at this week’s school board facilities committee meeting.
The drop in the number of people moving into the U.S. was repeatedly cited during Tuesday’s presentation. The U.S. Census Bureau has attributed the slowdown in U.S. population growth “largely due to a historic decline in net international migration,” The News & Observer has previously reported.
“As a nation overall and in North Carolina, we’re experiencing perhaps the most demographic uncertainty that we have in recent memory,” said Nathan Dollar, director of the Demography Center at UNC-Chapel Hill. “Foreign-born migration in particular has seen the sharpest decline as a nation for the first time in 50 years.”
The decline in foreign-born migration has coincided with the Trump administration’s push to limit both legal immigration and the number of people entering the country illegally.
Drop in English Language Learners
Attendance dropped sharply in Wake County and other school districts when the Border Patrol launched an immigration enforcement surge in North Carolina in November. Nearly 1 in 9 Wake County students were absent — 67% more than on a typical school day.
Wake and other districts have tried to ease the concerns of families hesitant to send their students to schools due to immigration concerns. They’ve cited how they’re following a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that public schools can’t deny students an education based on their immigration status.
Dollar said Wake doesn’t keep track of where its students are born. But Dollar said they can use English Language Learners (ELL) as a proxy.
This school year, Wake’s ELL population dropped by 3,000 students to 18,476 — the first significant decline in a decade. The statewide ELL headcount dropped by 15,513 students this school year.
Dollar said the decline in ELL students “indicates that this overall decline in the foreign-born migration is affecting WCPSS student membership.”
“We’re experiencing some demographic uncertainty right now, and we’ve got declines in the foreign-born population that are historic that are likely affecting membership in Wake County Public Schools,” Dollar said.
Expansion of private school voucher program
Wake is also weighing the impact of the state opening up the Opportunity Scholarship program to all families, regardless of income level. This school year, 105,187 students statewide are receiving a private school voucher, which is 24,715 more than last school year.
Dollar said the expansion of the Opportunity Scholarship program could explain both the drop in the school district’s enrollment and in the number of Wake County students attending charter schools. Dollar said it’s the first time Wake’s charter school enrollment has dropped since charter school expansion began in 2015.
Wake will have a better feel for the impact of the Opportunity Scholarship program after the state releases updated figures on the number of private school students statewide.
“The changes in the Opportunity Scholarship program are going to likely impact our district so we just need to continue to monitor how that impacts our total enrollment,” Pullium said.
Wake lowers long-range enrollment projections
Wake’s new long-range enrollment projection calls for the district to have 163,046 students in 2035. That’s only 2,633 students more than this school year.
It’s significantly less than prior projections. A year ago, planners had projected Wake would have 175,890 students a decade out.
Pullium told school board members that the reduced growth supports the district’s efforts to focus more on renovations in a planned November school construction bond referendum.
“The distribution of our growth throughout the county still does highlight the need for some new schools, but maybe not as many as we’ve needed in the preceding 10 to 20 years,” Pullium said.
The ability to put more money into renovations is a “silver lining,” according to school board member Lynn Edmonds.
“If we’re talking a 5-, 10-year forecast, I think that’s a great time to seize that opportunity to take care of some of our older campuses,” Edmonds said
This story was originally published March 11, 2026 at 1:04 PM.
