How could La Niña affect NC’s winter weather and snow chances? The forecast
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- NOAA forecasts a weak La Niña, resulting in a drier 2025 winter in central North Carolina.
- La Niña tends to shift jet stream north, favoring warmer and drier central North Carolina.
- Other climate patterns and a weak La Niña leave room for cold spells and precipitation.
A weak La Niña weather pattern is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, which could affect the weather in central North Carolina over the next few months.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center previously forecasted that temperatures in North Carolina during December, January and February will likely be above normal, and precipitation likely below normal.
Recently, the Climate Prediction Center released new predictions regarding La Niña.
What is La Niña?
During La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain cooler than normal. The pattern is associated with a weaker and northward-shifted jet stream over the United States, where North Carolina is south of the prevailing jet stream, according to NOAA.
The La Niña weather pattern usually results in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average winters in central North Carolina, said James Danco, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service forecast office in Raleigh.
“But that’s not always the case, and there are other factors at play as well that have a big effect on our winters,” Danco said.
Those other factors — such as the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Quasi-biennial Oscillation — are climate patterns, like the El Niño Southern Oscillation, of which La Niña is a phase. These patterns may be more difficult to predict well in advance, Danco said.
Because a weaker La Niña is expected, its effect on winter will likely be less significant, Danco said.
“Even though the overall forecast is warmer and drier, from the Climate Prediction Center, that doesn’t mean that we can’t have, certainly, at least, cooler cold periods at times, and wet as well,” Danco said.
NC Climate Office winter prediction
A pattern that could bring cooler and wetter conditions is the Madden-Julian Oscillation, assistant state climatologist Corey Davis writes in the winter outlook, published in November.
However, Davis writes, there have been 13 weak La Niña winters between 1950 and last winter. Of those seven were warmer than normal, and 11 were drier than normal in North Carolina.
Based on weather patterns and history, the state Climate Office agrees with the Climate Prediction Center that North Carolina will get a drier-than-normal winter. There could be some opportunities for snow, Davis writes, and in fact, wintry precipitation is in the forecast for this week.
Below-normal snowfall totals are expected for the season as a whole, though.
But it stops short of predicting prevailing warmth. Instead, Davis writes, North Carolina could see cold spells earlier in winter, followed by a warm up by February.
