Brace for a repeat of Raleigh’s infamous ice storm of 2002 — with power outages
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Forecast projects freezing rain and significant ice Saturday evening to Sunday.
- Ice accumulation could mirror 2002 impacts, snapping limbs and downing lines.
- Prepare for multi-day outages; officials advise readiness for cold, limited services.
Triangle snow lovers started this week with fantasies of sipping hot cocoa by a fire while the kids built snowmen and sledded merrily down neighborhood hills. But the closer we get to the weekend, the winter storm coming is looking more treacherous and way less fun.
The current forecast, as of Thursday, Jan. 22, calls for less snow than some had hoped for and more freezing rain with an accumulation of ice — the heaviest precipitation expected between Saturday evening and Sunday evening. High temperatures will be the 20s and 30s in the Triangle, with lows in the teens and 20s Saturday and Sunday nights, and in the single digits Monday night. Wind chill values could make it feel like zero or even colder.
For many, it brings to mind a truly awful two-day ice storm that landed in the Triangle on Dec. 4, 2002. It started with a morning of snow, sleet and freezing rain, and by midafternoon, traffic came to a standstill as snow and ice transformed “highways into skating rinks,” The News & Observer reported at the time.
By 10 p.m. that first night, the N.C. State Highway Patrol reported 540 wrecks in the area, as vehicles slid and skidded across exit ramps and bridges.
Schools dismissed, stores closed. Area shelters went into “white flag” mode, with temperatures stuck below freezing.
Ice-covered tree limbs snapped and brought down power lines, leaving nearly half a million CP&L (now Progress Energy) customers — mostly in Raleigh — in the dark for days, along with another 142,000 Duke Power customers in Durham and Chapel Hill.
Power crews working on Dec. 5 told The N&O that the outages could get worse. “The worst thing that can happen is wind,” CP&L field supervisor Eddie Dunnagan said. “If we get any wind, we’ll have (Hurricane) Fran-like conditions before the ice even melts.”
Luckily, high wind didn’t kick in. But still, wireless phone services went down, the sound of chainsaws filled the air and auto body repair shops were overwhelmed with busted cars.
Why was the 2002 storm system so bad?
At the time, Rod Gonski, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service, told The N&O that it was a result of enough dry, frigid air hitting enough warm, wet air.
A northern jet stream pushed frigid air from central Canada south into central North Carolina. That sent December temperatures, usually in the 50s here, down into the 30s.
Then a highly active southern jet stream, energized by El Nino, dispatched warm moist air this way, which was driven up over the cold mass. When the moist air reached the dry air, it dropped rain. At first, the rain froze, sending sleet and, for a short time, snow to the earth. But as the cold mass eroded, the water dropped through as chilly rain, The N&O reported.
When it struck below-freezing temperatures on the earth’s surface, it froze on whatever it struck, including roadways and “so many trees and power lines unable to carry the burden.”
This year’s storm could be as bad as the 2002 storm
This year’s storm is a little different than the 2002 situation, but the results could be much the same.
Meteorologist Don “Big Weather” Schwenneker at ABC11, The News & Observer’s newsgathering partner, told The N&O on Thursday that a big difference with this weekend’s storm is that we won’t likely start out with as much snow.
“This could be more of just a straight ice event or a sleet event,” Schwenneker said. “Sleet would be great for us.”
Freezing rain is what we don’t want, he explained, because when freezing rain touches the cold ground, it freezes and becomes ice, whereas sleet hits the ground as little frozen balls.
Not-so-fun-fact from Schwenneker: One inch of ice can equal 500 pounds on a power line. If we see a half-inch of ice, we’ll be on par with that 2002 storm, he said — and current models are calling for a “significant” accumulation of ice.
“That’s why I’m telling people to be prepared to go several days without power,” he said. “I would be so happy to be wrong because I don’t want people to go through what they will go through with a massive ice storm and power outages.”
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This story was originally published January 22, 2026 at 1:56 PM.
