Matchups: It’s gotta be asked. Can UNC stop NC State’s run game on Saturday?

So, about that North Carolina run defense.

Head coach Mack Brown preached temperance two weeks ago, when the Tar Heels had allowed just 108 combined rushing yards in wins over Syracuse and Boston College. And after Virginia Tech (48 carries for 260 yards) and Florida State (36 for 241) went on to gash now-No. 14 UNC on the ground over the next two weeks, he reiterated Monday those first two games were “kind of an outlier” for his team.

Enter No. 23 N.C. State, which presents an interesting challenge for a North Carolina defense that’s been virtually feast or famine in containing opposing running backs this year.

Zonovan Knight (60 carries for 365 yards and three touchdowns) and Ricky Person Jr. (69 for 323 and three touchdowns) have split touches almost evenly for the Wolfpack. But they deferred at times to quarterback Devin Leary, whose heroics contributed as much as anyone’s to the team’s current position.

With Leary out four to eight weeks and backup Bailey Hockman back under center, though, Knight and Person have become even more crucial to the first ranked UNC-N.C. State matchup since 1993.

UNC’s offense has proven it can score against anyone (even if it was too little and too late against Florida State). But its defense has question marks. And if N.C. State can control the line of scrimmage, get its running backs going early and allow Hockman to settle into his third start of the season, Saturday’s rivalry game, set for noon on ESPN at Kenan Stadium, can be a good one.

THIS SEASON

Records: No. 14 UNC 3-1 (3-1 ACC); No. 23 N.C. State 4-1 (4-1 ACC)

UNC offense: 35.3 ppg | 519.5 ypg | 289.8 passing ypg | 229.8 rushing ypg

N.C. State defense (allowed): 31.4 ppg | 421.4 ypg | 268.2 passing ypg | 153.2 rushing ypg

N.C. State offense: 33.6 ppg | 393 ypg | 241.6 passing ypg | 151.4 rushing ypg

UNC defense (allowed): 26 ppg | 370.5 ypg | 218.3 passing ypg | 152.3 rushing ypg

UNC run game vs NC State run defense

The Tar Heels continue to field one of the country’s best rushing offenses and ran a season-high 45 times for 184 yards against FSU. But self-inflicted errors — third-down stalls, Sam Howell’s pick-six and Javonte Williams getting stuffed on a fourth and one while UNC trailed 10-0 in the second quarter — put a damper on another statistically dominant performance for Williams and Michael Carter.

Outside of the team’s only loss, to Virginia Tech, the Wolfpack have been pretty strong defending runners. In their last three games, all wins, they’ve held Pittsburgh to 92 yards, Virginia to 82 and Duke to 129 yards while allowing just one rush over 20 yards. The star linebacking trio of Payton Wilson (ACC-best 11 tackles per game), Drake Thomas and Isaiah Moore deserves lots of credit there.

UNC pass game vs NC State pass defense

Howell had more yards in the second half against FSU (283) than he did in total against Boston College (225) and Virginia Tech (257). His pick-six was the only blemish on a performance that Pro Football Focus graded as a 91.6 out of 100, Howell’s best against an FBS opponent. At this point, the only question is who among UNC’s Rolodex of capable receivers will get the most looks from him.

Defensive tackle Alim McNeill’s 18-yard interception return touchdown against Virginia — dubbed the “Thick Six” by N.C. State athletic communications — has been the highlight, but the Wolfpack have intercepted five more passes this season as well. Of N.C. State’s six interceptions, four have come from non-defensive backs; its secondary has been banged up all season and will lean on a younger group of players than preferred again on Saturday.

NC State run game vs UNC run defense

The Wolfpack run the ball. A lot. Their 200 attempts through five games are tied for the 13th most in the country. But their per-game average is more mid-tier, with 270 yards against Wake Forest in their opener as a high point. As previously noted, Knight and Person have been less involved in close games. Also of note: UNC struggles to defend running quarterbacks, but Hockman isn’t as mobile as Leary.

After reviewing film, Brown said Monday the UNC defense missed 19 tackles against FSU. In the run game, those led to chunk plays the Tar Heels couldn’t afford to give up (174 of FSU’s 241 rushing yards came on just nine carries). North Carolina will be looking for a bounce-back game from starting linebackers Chazz Surratt and Jeremiah Gemmel, among others, in that department.

NC State pass game vs UNC pass defense

If your tight end is 6-foot-7, why not throw him a steady stream of jump balls? N.C. State’s Cary Angeline has been uber-efficient with 177 yards and five touchdowns on just 11 receptions. Emeka Emezie (19 catches for 286 yards) and Devin Carter (13 for 243) have been steady contributors, and slot receiver Thayer Thomas caught the go-ahead touchdown from Hockman last weekend. The pressure here falls on Hockman, who has been alternatively hot (Wake Forest, Duke) and cold (VT) under center this season.

Storm Duck has been out for a while, and UNC is still adjusting to life without its top corner. Trey Morrison, a Swiss army knife of a defensive back, finally forced North Carolina’s first turnover since its season opener when he picked off FSU’s quarterback in the second half last week. Safety Don Chapman (26 tackles) has made a nice jump, too, but more pass rush would help the secondary. Since logging seven sacks in its opener against, UNC has just five since (and one each in its last two games).

UNC special teams vs NC State special teams

Florida State set the tone for an upset last weekend when it blocked UNC’s first punt, setting up a touchdown, and partially deflected another. Add in a missed Grayson Atkins field goal with UNC trailing 31-21 in the fourth quarter, and special teams were a damning part of a loss that dropped North Carolina nine spots in the AP poll. The Tar Heels continue to defend kick/punt returns well.

Linebacker Levi Jones, a Southern Cal transfer, has blocked a punt in consecutive games for N.C. State, so expect the Wolfpack to attack North Carolina’s punt protection often Saturday. Wolfpack kicker Christopher Dunn keeps climbing the school’s special teams record books and is 5-7 this season. Person/Knight and Thayer Thomas continue to handle kick and punt return duties, respectively.

UNC intangibles vs NC State intangibles

These teams, simply put, don’t like each other. Wilson, a former Orange High linebacker who committed to UNC before ultimately choosing N.C. State, said this week he hears from North Carolina fans often.

We’re just two seasons removed from the 2018 end zone brawl that led to seven suspensions and a memorable Larry Fedora soundbite (“There was no fight. Not to my knowledge”) in his final news conference as UNC’s head coach. And, of course, you’ve read this week about the Donnie Thompson-Ted Cain body slam of 1993, in the last meeting between ranked Tar Heel and Wolfpack teams.

Along with general rivalry storylines, this is a definitive week for both teams from a season-wide trajectory. North Carolina can’t afford a second loss if it wants to legitimately compete for an ACC Championship, and N.C. State — 3-0 at Kenan Stadium under Dave Doeren — has a golden (but not easy) opportunity to extend its surprise run in the top of the ACC standings.

This story was originally published October 23, 2020 at 10:27 AM.