Congressional map predicted to gain 3 GOP seats moves forward in NC legislature

Republicans in the North Carolina Senate advanced a new congressional map Monday expected to result in at least three new seats for the GOP.

Legislative leaders initially proposed two options for the map, one of which appeared to give Republicans an even more severe advantage, likely resulting in Republicans winning in 11 of the state’s 14 congressional districts.

The Senate redistricting committee abandoned this plan on Monday, passing another option which likely results in a 10-4 breakdown, though one of the Democratic districts would be very competitive.

Asked how Republicans chose which map to advance, Sen. Ralph Hise, chair of the committee, said it “was a decision of the committee chairs in the committee as to which map we thought was best likely to pass the General Assembly.”

Lawmakers could still choose to take up the map with the 11-3 breakdown, but Monday’s vote makes it much more likely that the 10-4 congressional map will be the one that becomes law.

That map can still be amended, and Republicans made some tweaks on Monday. Democrats on the committee offered no amendments and did not debate it, despite accusing Republicans of partisan gerrymandering on social media.

Who’s in, who’s out if the map goes from 7-7 to 10-4

North Carolina currently has seven Democrats and seven Republicans in Congress. The current congressional map was drawn by a group of court-appointed “special masters” in 2022 after the state Supreme Court ruled that Republicans had unconstitutionally gerrymandered the initial map.

After Republicans won a majority in the Supreme Court in 2022, the court ruled that it can no longer decide on claims of partisan gerrymandering, so any legal challenges to the new maps would likely have to focus on racial gerrymandering instead.

The new map, if passed, would likely unseat Democratic U.S. Reps. Wiley Nickel, of Wake County, Kathy Manning, of Guilford County and Jeff Jackson, of Mecklenburg County. Democratic Rep. Don Davis, of Greene County, would still have a minor partisan advantage in his district, but it would likely be a close race.

Rep. Valerie Foushee, of Orange County, would have likely been drawn out of her seat in the 11-3 map, but appears to be in a safe district in the map advanced on Monday.

Lawmakers are expected to approve the congressional map and new legislative maps by the end of the week.

This story was originally published October 23, 2023 at 11:52 AM.

Kyle Ingram

The News & Observer

Kyle Ingram is the Democracy Reporter for the News & Observer. He reports on voting rights, election administration, the state judicial branch and more. He is a graduate of the Hussman School of Journalism and Media at UNC-Chapel Hill.