Under the Dome: How to spot election misinformation, and when to expect results
Good morning and welcome to the Under the Dome newsletter. I’m Emily Vespa.
It’s Election Day. If that makes your stress levels spike, you’re not the only one. Today, taking news breaks and prioritizing self-care can help relieve election anxiety, experts say. Read more on how to cope with election stress from The Charlotte Observer’s Evan Moore.
Meanwhile, a bevy of misleading and false claims about the election have already begun to proliferate. Danielle Lee Tomson, who leads the election rumor research team at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, said election rumors about swing states have been particularly prevalent.
Here’s what to know about what experts say are the two top election-related rumors.
Claim: Noncitizens vote in large numbers.
A wealth of bipartisan research shows that noncitizen voting is extremely rare. Still, former President Donald Trump and his allies have circulated false claims that Democrats allow people to cross the border without legal authorization and then register them to vote.
As Kyle Ingram reported, the Republican National Committee has filed a lawsuit against North Carolina’s Board of Elections, alleging without substantial evidence that noncitizens could be illegally registered to vote. So far, the lawsuit has been largely unsuccessful.
Claim: Voting machines are rife with errors.
Some North Carolina voters have claimed on social media that voting machines have switched their intended vote. Like many election rumors we’ve seen this year, this narrative isn’t new.
Trump claimed in 2020 that voting machines “flipped” votes for him to his opponent. Last year, Fox News settled a defamation lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems for $787.5 million after the network aired false voter fraud claims, including that voting machines switched votes. Still, Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed the conspiracy theory in October.
Election officials have said vote-switching issues are generally due to human error. A Texas county board of elections reported last month that one voter out of 58,000 found his ballot didn’t reflect his choice for president, so he cast a new one. The board said it has no reason to believe it was the fault of the voting system.
“There is a reason we tell people to review their ballots,” said a Georgia official on X. “Humans make mistakes. They’re called mistakes for a reason. Anyone claiming machines are flipping votes are lying or don’t research.”
WHAT ELSE TO WATCH FOR
Misinformation often tends to gain traction on social media, experts say. Posts that elicit a strong emotional reaction could contain false or misleading information. Be mindful of the information’s source.
Also beware of artificial-intelligence-generated or doctored images and videos, which have circulated on social media recently. My colleague Caitlyn Yaede has the details on how to spot AI-generated political content.
I’ll be helping The News & Observer team fact-check potential misinformation on and after Election Day. If you see local election information that seems questionable, report it by emailing dome@newsobserver.com or via our dashboard at https://truthsleuthlocal.netlify.app.
Read more about the dashboard and how to use it from Caitlyn and me.
WE WON’T KNOW OFFICIAL RESULTS ON ELECTION NIGHT. HERE’S WHY.
A spokesman for Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign took to X Sunday to claim that without knowing results on Election Day, “you can’t have confidence in a ‘free and fair election.’”
North Carolina won’t declare official election results on Election Day, and that doesn’t mean something is amiss. On election night, North Carolina will report unofficial results, which will likely include about 98% of all ballots cast in the election, according to the state Board of Elections. But official results are finalized after a 10-day period called the canvass.
During the canvass, which is required by state law, the county boards of elections add eligible absentee ballots and provisional ballots to the results. Election officials also ensure votes are counted correctly and conduct ballot audits.
For races that are close – and pollsters say the presidential race will be – the state board said ballots counted during the canvass could determine the winners. In 2020, former President Donald Trump had his smallest margin of victory in North Carolina, which he won by 1.3 percentage points.
County boards of elections certify local election results on Nov. 15. The state board will certify results on Nov. 26.
For more on what to watch for tonight as the results roll in, see this story by Kyle Ingram.
CAMPAIGN WATCH
North Carolina saw a flurry of final campaign stops Monday as candidates vied for the favor of battleground voters. Avi Bajpai, Dawn Baumgartner Vaughan and Caitlyn Yaede reported updates throughout the event-packed day.
In the morning, Trump made his final North Carolina campaign stop at a Raleigh rally.
First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper helped with phone banking and canvassing efforts across the state for Vice President Kamala Harris.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned in Nashville for Laurie Buckhout, the Republican congressional candidate in a closely-watched race that could decide which party controls the House.
Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff campaigned in Eastern North Carolina.
In the evening, the Harris campaign planned a Raleigh concert with several celebrity appearances.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE WORKING ON
North Carolinians cast over 4 million ballots during the in-person early voting period, surpassing the previous turnout record. Read more about what the turnout data shows from Kyle Ingram and Lexi Solomon.
Danielle Battaglia spoke to repeat attendees of Trump’s rallies last week in Rocky Mount about how they feel about his campaign coming to an end.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz campaigned in Gastonia Sunday. Read more from The Observer’s Ryan Oerhli.
POLL WATCH
The latest poll of North Carolina’s early and likely voters from East Carolina University, conducted Oct. 24-29, shows:
Trump has a slight lead over Harris, 50% to 48%.
In the governor’s race, Attorney General Josh Stein leads Robinson 55% to 40%.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.
ELECTION DAY GUIDE
For everything you need to know to vote on Election Day, check out this roundup of our coverage. Here, you can find:
Our 2024 NC Voter Guide, by David Raynor
How to find your sample ballot, by Chyna Blackmon
How to check your voter registration, by Renee Umsted
What to know if your voter registration says “inactive,” by Renee Umsted
Details on the new voter ID law, by Kyle Ingram
What to know about provisional ballots, by Chyna Blackmon
How to track your mail-in ballot, by The Observer’s Evan Moore
How to find your polling place, by Chyna Blackmon
What to do if you’ve lost your voter ID, by Kyle Ingram
What people can find about your voting history, by Kimberly Cataudella Tutuska
Today’s newsletter was by Emily Vespa. Check your inbox tomorrow for more #ncpol.
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