Polls show a tightening Senate race in NC. Will Cheri Beasley’s strategy work?

Cheri Beasley, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, knows May’s primary was only the prologue to a hotly contested general election in a closely divided state.

With three months until election day and a tightening race, the Democratic nominee has spent the past several weeks criss-crossing North Carolina.

The 56-year-old has given stump speeches, taken questions from locals and visited small businesses. In Camden last week under the shade of a pavilion, she told the crowd, “We can do anything in 97 days,” citing the numbers of days until the election.

North Carolina is one of the few battleground states that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. North Carolina’s two senators — Thom Tillis and the retiring Richard Burr — are both Republicans in a body that’s split 50-50.

If elected, Beasley would be the first Black woman senator from North Carolina and the third in the history of the Senate.

Beasley makes appeal to rural voters

While she’s raised more than twice as much money as Republican Rep. Ted Budd — $16.02 million to Budd’s $6.49 million — Beasley’s competitor leads in some polls. In an August poll by Blueprint Polling, Beasley led Budd 46% to 42%, with 12% undecided. But in another by Civitas, Budd led with 45% to Beasley’s 40.3%. It’s close; some observers and Beasley’s allies say her current strategy could lead her to Washington, D.C.

Part of that strategy revolves around rural communities such as North Carolina’s northeastern counties she visited last week. Kirk Rivers, the mayor of Elizabeth City, said residents of northeastern North Carolina, like the far western counties, often feel neglected during statewide campaigns.

As Beasley spoke in the shade in Camden, students exercised under the hot sun in a field nearby. They’re the generation Bertie County Commissioner Ron Wesson fears northeastern North Carolina will lose unless legislators in Washington and Raleigh help the area with new economic opportunities.

Wesson, who supports Beasley, said he believes her when she says she’ll fight for rural areas. Whether she’ll be successful, he said, revolves around whether she energizes voters from every corner of the state — not just the dense, Democratic strongholds such as Charlotte.

If Beasley can rile up voters from the coast to the mountains, “she stands a really good chance,” he said.

Budd has visited all 100 counties during his campaign. In his travels, he’s heard “folks are worried about inflation and they’re having to make hard choices because of Joe Biden’s bad decisions,” Budd’s senior advisor Jonathan Felts said in an email.

Felts said Beasley’s fundraising isn’t worrisome. Democrats often out-raise Republicans in battleground Senate races, including in North Carolina in 2014, 2016 and 2020, he said. Republicans won all three races.

“Her fundraising advantage should make folks in the ad sales departments at NC TV stations feel pretty good about their Christmas bonus this year but she won’t win because she’s paying for a flawed message,” Felts wrote. “Joe Biden’s policies are crushing working families in NC and Cheri Beasley supports those policies.”

‘Democracy truly could be at risk’

Part of Beasley’s opportunity to win, Wesson said, is to focus on what he see as a high stake election.

“If we don’t do what we need to do now to refocus American policy and direction, our democracy truly could be at risk,” he said. “That maybe sounds like hyperbole, but I don’t think that’s the case. We’re at an inflection point (and) we really need to pull people together.”

In Camden, Beasley focused on her policy priorities — lowering insulin costs, protecting reproductive rights and securing broadband internet for rural parts of the state. Her stump speech drew contrasts with Budd’s votes, including his vote against a bill to cap insulin costs at $35 a month.

Will those policy priorities draw Beasley voters to the polls?

In an interview with The Charlotte Observer, Beasley pointed to her time on the state Supreme Court, that she’s a mother and that “North Carolinians are sick of politics as usual from Washington and they want a senator who’s going to put them first, and I’m the only candidate in this race who will do that.”

“We are reaching out to voters, we are investing in them now,” she said.

Polling shows a tight race

Asked what issues she thinks will be most crucial to turning out voters, Beasley pointed to inflation, health care costs and reproductive rights.

Beasley added that her opponent’s actions on Jan. 6, 2021 could help her win over some voters. Budd voted against certifying the election results in two states and plans to attend a fundraiser on Aug. 15 hosted by Trump adviser Cleta Mitchell, who also helped Donald Trump in trying to overturn the 2020 election results, the Raleigh News & Observer reported.

Felts told the News & Observer the campaign was “thrilled about this event” and that Jan. 6 “didn’t have much of an impact in the primary and I don’t think it will have much of an impact in the General Election.”

“I think it’s clear to people that this Jan. 6 was inspired by our former president from folks who tried to overthrow our government,” Beasley said, adding “It is concerning that Congressman Budd spread the big lie.”

Populist campaign can win, says Rev. William Barber

Rev. William Barber II, co-chair of the Poor People’s Campaign who grew up in eastern North Carolina, said he sees potential for a strong, populist campaign to win in North Carolina.

Barber says a populist candidate will find success putting low-income supporters in ads and giving them a voice in the campaign, pushing for a debate and hosting it regardless of whether the other candidate shows up. The candidate should hit hard on bread-and-butter economic issues like wages, Barber said.

After speaking in Camden, Beasely spent some time at Beverly Brickhouse’s antique shop in Hertford. Undecided on her vote, Brickhouse said she hopes whoever wins prioritizes supporting small businesses such as hers. She added her friends and family are worried about things like inflation, securing the southern border and crime.

Brickhouse admitted she isn’t familiar with Beasley’s policies, but added the nominee “seems like a very commonsense, grounded person, unlike people on one extreme or the other.”

“I don’t know anything about her background but I would think she comes from good folks,” she said.

Janice Cole, a former U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of North Carolina and a friend of Beasley’s, said she believes that will go a long way with many voters, particularly in parts of the state that often feel neglected by political leadership.

“Very often we are ignored,” Cole said.

This story was originally published August 12, 2022 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Polls show a tightening Senate race in NC. Will Cheri Beasley’s strategy work?."

Will Wright

The Charlotte Observer

Will Wright covers politics in Charlotte and North Carolina. He previously covered eastern Kentucky for the Lexington Herald-Leader, and worked as a reporting fellow at The New York Times.